The most common 21st century residential real estate buyer question(s): What (where) is the best real estate investment? Will X property appreciate over the next 5 years?

Seems the old-time reasons for home ownership have seen there final days. Your home - whether 300 square feet or 5000 - is no longer (just) the place you go for shelter, to grow in over time and/or raise your family, dogs, cats and chickens, until your hair turns grey. Today, people are more interested in appreciation and returns than the warm and fuzzy feeling home ownership often brings.

Insert the problem: Predicting real estate trends is near to impossible especially because real estate is so local - each towns market statistics are vastly different than the next … For example if I - or anyone - could have predicted the recent mortgage crisis and what it would do to the real estate market (in each individual town) I would not be sitting here writing this blog (picture huge yacht, margaritas and sunsets). Not to say I won’t keep trying

I had an inquiring mind ask about the Concord condo market in terms of good vs bad short term investment and ability of appreciation over the next 5/10 years. Sticking to the “share the wealth [of knowledge]” cliche, here was my response:

First and for most you should buy based on your needs, so if the condo/townhouse style is the answer than that should be your focus.

That said, single families in concord will likely appreciate more than condo’s and I say this because Concord has such great school systems the town will always attract families looking for single family homes. While condos and single families likely appreciate in tandem, single families offer more options to increase their value (landscaping, parking and there is no condo association dictating other changes/upgrades or lack there of). This means, if you choose to buy a condo in a single family driven area you should concentrate on getting the best and lowest price.

Since real estate trends are pretty unpredictable - i.e. the market crisis we experienced over the last 2 years was unforeseen by most - it is hard to say what the resale market for condo/townhouses will look like in the next 5/10 years (by the way a 10 year resale period is not really considered “short term”). However we can get close to understanding if there is opportunity by looking at recent condo statistics compared to single family statistics.

Over the last year 42 condos have sold in concord with an average days on market of 145. The largest number of sales happened in the $300,000-$350,000 - making it the most active price point - and since your price range ($500,000) isn’t at the top either it leaves you in a good position for resale. Buying the highest-end property puts you in more risk for little appreciation. In your specific price range the average days on market is 128 with a sale price to listing price discount of 4% putting it equal to the total condo market discount. The current absorption rate for condos is 3.5, which means over the last year that many condos sold per month. Using this number I was able to find there are currently 8 months of inventory on the market which means the condo market in concord right now is middle of the road: not quite a sellers market and not quite a buyers market (although it is right on the edge). Inventory is half what it was compared to the market in the prior year. Also the days on market has doubled and the median price has dropped. This means the condo market in concord has softened a bit (deal to be had?),

Compare this to the Single family numbers: 169 SF’s have sold over the last year with an average days on market of 145, and a market average discount of 5%. The hottest price points are the $500,000-599,000 range and the $1mill-$1.5mill range. The first number being the most relevant to you … Since your price point falls in one of the most competitive single family price points your concentration when buying a condo should be on getting the lowest price as this will give you an edge against SFs at resale.

Again, real estate is very difficult to predict but remember it is also very cyclical. We are in a down turn now but it will definitely come around soon. So, to reiterate, my suggestion is for you to focus on getting the lowest price possible as well as a good quality townhouse, and hopefully this will guarantee an appreciation.

You can see the smoke for miles - and also the traffic - as a 4 alarm fire continues to ravage the Highlands at Dearborn.

The self proclaimed “luxury” rental complex is located between Rte 1 and I95. We hope they get the fire under conrtol soon and our thoughts are with the residents.

The Real Estate industries age-old monopoly may finally be cracking wide open and we couldn’t be happier. For years anti-competitive tactics used by traditional real estate firms across the country have been  preventing companies (like ours) from delivering 21st century home-buyers (like you) what they want - information (well, that plus our amazing service ). But finally the Justice Department opened their eyes and reached a settlement with the National Association of Realtors in an antitrust case over the trade group’s effort to control how home listings are displayed on the Internet.

A message to New York City: HERE WE COME!

Natick Bungalow. Great location and space. Updated bathrooms plus patio. Perfect way to enter the Natick market. $424,000 (Territory Buyer Rebate is $5627.50!)

Restored Lexington Village Colonial with 3beds/2baths, garage and yard. $519,900 (Territory Buyer Rebate is $8,002.50!)

Opportunity knocks in prestigious Wellesley. This beautiful 4bedroom colonial is in need of TLC. It boasts all the bones - including 9 foot ceilings - sure to make an incredible renovated historic home. $649,000 (Territory Buyer Rebate - to go towards renovations? - $11,230)

*** Buyer Rebates calculated using the listing price. If your Territory Guide negotiates you the lowest price possible the Buyer Rebate amount will change according to purchase price ***

Handpicked by the Territory Team from all the open houses this Sunday in Quincy, the below trail will lead you to some good one’s:

1. Short walk to the T and the beach, this 4 bedroom home boasts a detached garage and full basement. Open House from 12pm-3pm
2. This 3bed/1.5bath property boasts a master bedroom with a private balcony. Open House: 11am- 1pm.
3. Great proximity to everything: beach, shops, T … You name it. 4bed/2.5bath. Open House: 12-4pm
4. Ocean front cottage with tons of charm. 2bed/2bath with updated kitchen. Open House: 12-1:30
5. Beautiful large colonial. 4beds/2baths with a nice sized level yard and garage. Open House: 1-3pm
6. Waterviews galore! This swank 1930’s arts and crafts home has unique charm and 3,000 square feet of living space. Open House: 12-1:30pm

Let us know if you need an extensive property analysis. A Territory Guide is always ready to help get you the lowest price possible.

If you recognize that residential real estate has become a highly leveraged asset class then you must accept that home prices rise and fall with the availability and cost of mortgage money. Buyers (and banks) determine what is affordable based on the monthly cost of ownership. Accordingly, as mortgage rates drop, prices increase and of course, vice-versa.

Now that I have mastered the obvious let me make a leap that maybe some of you haven’t made.

In February of ‘08 the “conforming” loan limit in all of Massachusetts was $417,000. Assuming a 20% down payment, homes costing more than $521,250 required “non-conforming” Jumbo loans which carried interest rates of about a point higher than their “conforming” cousins.

In March ‘08 the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight raised the size of loans that can be guaranteed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to 125% of the median home price in a particular county. In Massachusetts the conforming loan amounts for Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, and Suffolk counties jumped to $523,750. Assuming the same 20% down payment, buyers could now purchase homes up to $659,688 and still qualify for mortgages at the lower interest rates.

So… if in February of ‘08 you purchased a home for $521,251 the cost of ownership (not considering taxes maintenance, insurance, etc…) would have been $3485.42 per month but only a month later the same $3485.42 would carry a home worth $594,020.

The point is that if in February you owned a home that was worth more than $521,250 and less than $659,688 than theoretically it increased in value the moment the change is conforming loan rates went into effect.

Now here is the catch (I’m telling you there is always a catch)… despite the change in how “jumbo” loans are determined the interest rates on loans between $417,000 and $523,750 have not yet dropped to the point where they are equal to the lowest “conforming” rates. Keep your eyes on the road because the two rates are moving towards one another and if you believe that this trend will continue you should be out scouring the market for homes priced between $520,000 and $660,000.

(Sigh…) Artist lofts, they really are hard to beat. You gotta love the unique converted warhouses, factories, schools, brewerys, and/or churches. There are always great open floor plans, high ceilings and tons of character and charm.

The true lofts - not newly built lofts - however, are hard to come by. We, over at Territory, have fallen in love with a couple over the years … There was Fulton street, the one on Kingston (tear) - elevator opened into the huge living space plus incredible custom roof deck with a bar - and the most recent one at 305 Cambridge (sniffle) that had incredible original pine floors, huge ceiling height, 2 full beds/baths and 2nd level for chilling out with a good book.

Well, we may not see a kingston or camrbridge street come back on the market anytime soon but, hey, there is always a good rebound, right? See below:

East Boston: Beamed ceilings, original brick walls, cherry hardwoods with a new kitchen. $269,000

South End: 11foot ceilings, exposed brick, 1200 square feet and 10 windows, plus dinner and drinks at Gaslight. $309,900

Leather District: Beamed ceilings, including exposed ducts, original hardwoods, big windows, the works. Nice price per square foot. $649,000

South Boston: Now this is interesting. Loft due to the high ceilings. Charm includes original hardwoods and fantastic windows. We really like-y. $579,900

Jamaica Plain: Converted police station. This place is awesome! 3000+ square feet, near the train and trails on Jamaica pond. Reminds me of the liberty hotel. It’s down to $214 a square foot … a steal! $649,900

Brighton: Built in 1930 and converted to a huge loft in 2003, this place has ceiling height up to 22 feet plus bamboo floors and 2 car garage parking. $617,000

North End: Amazing brick barrels ceilings! 2bed/2bath with gourmet kitchen plus huge garden patio. $779,000

Where: 815 Boylston Street (between Gloucester and Fairfield)
When: Thursday, 6:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m

Public Schools:

1. James Condon Elementary
   200 D Street
   South Boston, MA 02127
2. Joseph P Tynan
   650 E Fourth Street
   South Boston, MA 02127
3. Michael J Perkins
   50 Burke Street
   South Boston, MA 02127
4. Oliver Hazard Perry
   745 East Seventh Street
   South Boston, MA 02127
5. Patrick F Gavin Middle School
   215 Dorchester Street
   South Boston, MA 02127

Private Schools:

1. Gate of Heaven Elementary School
   609 East Fourth Street
   South Boston, MA 02127
2. St Augustine Elementary School
   209 E Street
   South Boston, MA 02127
3. St Brigid School
   866 East Broadway
   South Boston, MA 02127
4. St Mary School
   52 Boston St.
   South Boston, MA 02127
5. St Peter Elementary School
   518 East Sixth Street
   South Boston, MA 02127

Did we miss any? Thanks to Pubic School Report, Private School Report, Great Schools and Local School Directory.

Who are the best of the next generation - change agents who redefine our industry and make significant contributions to our organizations. Do you know an outstanding young professional who is making waves and enjoying the swell of success

Nominate a rising star today.Each nominee must be under 40 and possess a proven track record of professional achievements in the real estate, banking, lending, construction, development, legal and/or financial sectors. Honorees will be selected based on their impact to local industries and service to the community. Nominations due by Friday, June 6. Help celebrate the new leaders, who shape tomorrow, today.